Brexit update: caught between the devil and the deep blue sea of incompetence

Apologies for the recent radio silence on the whole Brexit shenanigans. This was due to the fact that things have been developing so quickly that any update would have the shelf life of some sushi in the reduced section at Tesco. It was also due to the fact that I instead spent this time watching rolling news, banging my head against the desk in despair at the whole thing and wishing I lived in Uruguay. Or even North Korea - at least they get things done there.

Going back a couple of weeks to the last update from myself, Zach Thornton and John Mitchison in our DMA Politics Podcast (which is still worth a listen as our discussions venture beyond this into the wonderful world of lobbying and the political interest of John’s dad), we left off with Theresa May having had her withdrawal defeated twice. She was then also defeated in a vote that allowed Parliament to break a 140-year-old precedent and seize control of the parliamentary agenda from the government so that they could debate and vote on a series of Brexit options in order to find a majority and steer us all out of this mess.

So, Parliament had the chance to take over a day's proceedings, debate the issues and decide on a clear way forward.

And Parliament botched it.

No majority was reached for any of the options of varying versions of a new closer deal, a no-deal or a second referendum.

Then Theresa May took her deal back to a Parliament in the hope that they would finally cave in and support her deal, given that they couldn’t reach an agreement. The Prime Minister even promised to resign if it persuaded some members of her party to vote for her deal.

And then Theresa May botched it.

As Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, put it “Theresa May is the only leader to try and fall on her sword and miss”.

For the Third time, the Government’s Brexit deal was defeated by 50-or-so votes, which, compared to the 230 and 150 vote defeats of the last attempts, looked quite good. In any other time, this would be a hugely embarrassing and possibly resignation-worthy defeat.

So, yesterday it was once more Parliament’s turn to take over the parliamentary agenda and vote for a series of new Brexit directions as they had done last Wednesday.

And, once more, Parliament botched it.

None of the proposals reached a majority (though the SNP’s Joanna Cherry QC MP’s amendment was 1 vote short).

So what next? Logic dictates that they can’t go round on this ridiculous roundabout AGAIN.

But it’s Brexit, and logic doesn’t apply, so of course they will.

Theresa May has indicated she will bring back her deal for a fourth time. Similarly, there is the possibility that Parliament will debate and vote on options once more on Wednesday.

In the slightly longer term, Theresa May will have to go to Brussels next week to ask for another extension. The EU are not guaranteed to say yes. They are frustrated with the UK to such an extent they think leaving without a deal, while highly undesirable, would be better than having a long extension that did not take no-deal off the table.

Nonetheless, the likelihood is that both sides will begrudgingly agree to extend the process slightly longer.

And so, until a consensus is reached somewhere, or we are forced out due to inability to decide on a way forward, the cycle is set to continue for the foreseeable future.

I’m sorry about that.