2023 Gold Customer Programme

Agency: British American Tobacco UK

Client: British American Tobacco UK

Entry Title: Using predictive-AI to reduce churn

Executive Summary

The company used data intelligence and predictive AI to keep more customers on board with rigorously tested brands, reducing risk of them switching to potentially poorer-quality alternatives.

Strategy

BAT’s subscription programme needed overhauling. The strategy was to devise a personalised, omni-channel churn mitigation programme across call centre, email, SMS, and website.

The firm initiated five consumer surveys throughout the consumer journey to understand consumers’ expectations of its website, their subscription process experience, demands for greater flexibility and improved customer service—and why they were cancelling.

The business introduced a care team to nurture gold at-risk subscribers and proactively manage potential concerns through triggered communications, explaining how to get help and use subscription benefits.

That involved the creation of an Advanced Machine Learning Customer Churn Model that identified such customers 5.5 months before they churned.

Creativity

The initiative was built on three key insight areas.

The team reviewed a two-year period to identify how consumers behaved across numerous touchpoints. The data was put through statistical models, scoring 91% for sensitivity and 70% for accuracy of churn prediction on unseen data.

Audience segment motivations divided customers into four core behavioural audiences - Never subscribed, Active at risk, Paused and Cancelled. Each had a headline motivation upon which to build a narrative; savings, re-assurance, customisation, and value.

Unambiguous research feedback aided improvements and messaging. Some 65% of those surveyed told the brand to improve onsite experience and help them accomplish their tasks. Other improvements were required around support levels and order placement, which were then upgraded demonstrably.

Results

Some 62% of consumers said they would recommend BAT to friends and family. In addition, the campaign drove an increase in sales conversion and total revenue that would not have achieved without the churn mitigation programme.

The personalised omni-channel initiative reduced the net-new subscriber attrition rate by an average of 25 percentage points year on year. BAT’s digital and call-centre activation has helped to reduce churn by 32%.

The Team

British American Tobacco: Davenia John, Head of Data & Consumer Retention - Mariia Shumakova, Connections Planning Manager - Corina Comanescu, CRM Manager - Christos Gerontidis, Voice of the Customer Manager - Siamak Farjami, E-Retail Data Scientist

MAF Group:Manohar Anumolu, Founder - Abhishek Lakhera, Lead Optimisation Engineer

Curve Analytics: Jina Won Client Director

Only the Brave: James Dodd, Partner, Senior Account Director

The&Partnership: Aron Kaplan, Strategy Director - Hind Akhiyat, Programme Directo

Contributors

Only the Brave, Curve Analytics, MAF Group and The&Partnership