Politics 2019: what just happened?

I just had a glance over my article from around this time last year. In it, I predicted that the then Prime Minister Theresa May might have to extend the negotiating period (correct) renegotiate her deal (correct), but then ultimately have to put it back to the people in a second referendum (not correct in the slightest).

Two out of three ain’t bad in normal circumstances, but, given the divergence of the end-products of what I predicted and what has actually happened, I’m not sure I can claim to have the political foresight worthy of my pay-check. I’ll still take it though.

So, 2019 saw the end of Theresa May’s reign. Ultimately, her strategy in tackling the Brexit problem was so wrong that, when she resigned, she could only be praised for her ‘sense of duty’. For doing the job that SHE ASKED TO DO.

Theresa May sought compromise. Compromise between two groups of people who wanted fundamentally different things. Toeing the line down the middle pleased no-one, with leavers saying we were too far in the EU and remainers saying we were too far out. It was a bit like trying to please two children’s dinner choices by merging ice cream and bolognese together. While containing some constituent parts of what they wanted, it created something so horrible they turned against the person who gave it to them. And so, Theresa May had to go.

On to the scene stepped the person that apparently most people in the Conservative Party thought shouldn’t be Prime Minister. However, out of equal parts schadenfreude and masochism, everyone kind-of wanted to see what would happen if he did become Prime Minister, and so voted for him.

And their self-flagellating curiosity seems to have paid off in almighty proportions. Johnson briefly presided over the torturous Parliament that May created but, when the deadlock over the Brexit deal continued, he decided enough was enough and asked for a general election.

Next, it was the Labour Party’s turn to be the masochists. In spite of the astonishing levels of unpopularity of Jeremy Corbyn (levels only matched by… well every other Labour leader apart from Tony Blair), the Labour Party launched into the election campaign pretending that they were in with a shot.

The result of the Election was as decisive as it could possibly be. The Tories were given a majority of 84. Labour lost 71 constituencies, including some to the Tories in which many people would have previously rather had some cheese represent them before a Conservative MP did. How the tables have turned.

While the southern part of the map was turned blue after the election, in Scotland, the tale was quite different. Indeed, the Conservatives lost over half their MPs and Labour only managed to hold one. The SNP gained over 80% of all the country’s seats, giving Nicola Sturgeon the confidence of an adolescent boy who had done a really good wheelie in front of the girl he fancied. She now wishes to press ahead with a second referendum on Scottish Independence in 2020.

However this result throws up a constitutional conundrum: will Westminster cede powers (including the legal right to have a second referendum) as demanded by Nicola Sturgeon, or, will Boris Johnson lock horns with her and block any attempts for greater autonomy. It’s a tricky one to navigate, not least as Johnson’s resistance to SNP demands may work in Sturgeon’s favour.

Much like a toddler being introduced to a cat for the first time, we’ll need to see how this one plays out. And be ready for lots of hissing and crying.

Next year, and with Mr Johnson's comfortable majority, we will leave the EU on 31 January. Then, we enter the period of the Brexit process called the Future Relationship Negotiation Period. It will at this time when we will decide the full extent of the future EU-UK relationship in terms of trade, immigration, multilateral ventures and more. That's right, Brexit will not be done for at least this coming year, so prepare yourself for plenty more shenanigans, shocks and shouting.

In the meantime, have a wonderful Christmas and all the best for 2020.

You’re probably going to need it.