General Election 2019: who is going to win?

Do you remember the 2017 General Election when all the polls mistakenly predicted a Conservative Majority?

As it turned out, nearly everyone got it wrong and we were left with the hung Parliament that has caused us all so much bother.

Well, that’s what the polls are saying again. Which can only bode well?

However, the very large poll—or ‘multilevel regression post-stratification’, to give its proper name—that has this evening suggested the Conservatives will gain a majority is one of the few polls that correctly predicted the result last time.

Nonetheless, while this has the Tories safe and dry (on 339 seats - well past the 315 necessary to have a functional majority), you could say it is close to being close to hung parliament territory.

What’s more, a swathe of new hashtags and trends on social media are suggesting more and more people are open to the idea of tactical voting. John Curtice makes the important point that tactical voters usually don’t decide to vote tactically until the day of the election.

Estimates say that if 42,000 people across the hundreds of swing seats voted tactically, the Conservatives could be deprived of a majority, yet again.

So, while it’s most likely still that Mr Johnson will gain a majority in the House of Commons, it’s not a done deal. Or an ‘oven-ready’ deal, as he would say.

To hear a little more analysis from yours truly, why not tune in to the DMA Politics Podcast, in which I discuss what the numbers are looking like... and whether we can trust them.