A political update

I’ve just tuned in to watch Prime Minister’s Questions and realised it’s the first time I’ve watched for over a month despite the fact I watched it religiously (I’ve even got a calendar reminder) for the 6 months prior.

This may be because of the Parliamentary recess and the Brexit extension quietness, or perhaps I’ve finally succumbed to political deafness due to overexposure.

What’s happening with Brexit?

The Brexit date has been extended and now coincides nicely with Halloween. Clearly this was neither any way intentional nor is it a metaphor for post-Brexit life. Stop sniggering at the back.

The extension allows the UK to leave earlier if the UK can reach a deal before then.

A few weeks ago, Theresa May engaged in talks with the Labour Party to try and reach a consensus on a deal.

The Conservatives still believe they can get some kind of deal before the EU elections on 23 May. This is unlikely to happen, yet Brexit conforms to no logic so don’t hold me to that.

So, as ever, until something happens, nothing is happening.

EU Elections

As mentioned, it’s most likely the EU elections will take place on 23 May.

The newly-formed Brexit Party headed former UKIP leader Nigel Farage leads the polls. This is down to the bleeding of Tory support that has occurred since they have gone into negotiations with Labour to find a Brexit deal.

The anti-Brexit party (made up of MPs who resigned from both Labour and the Conservatives in frustration at their respective parties’ policies and Brexit stances), Change UK, trail in last place on 6%.

While the pro-Brexit vote is consolidated in one party, the anti-Brexit vote is spread across Change UK, the Lib Dems, the Greens, the SNP (in Scotland). Had they arranged some kind of pro-Brexit alliance, they would have better

In spite of their unclear positions on Brexit, Labour are in second place. Few Labour supporters have gone to other anti-Brexit parties and loyalty remains quite high, given the circumstances.

The Greens have increased their share of support to 10% - a bump since the Extinction Rebellion protests.

Thanks to the proportional system of electoral voting, all parties can expect to have MEPs elected.

Local Elections

Tomorrow, there are local council elections throughout England outside London. While turnout is normally low, the Conservatives are anticipated to take quite the kicking and may lose up to 800 councillors.

Thus it’s likely that a number of councils will change hands, paving the way for opposition parties to claim that the Tories no longer have mandate across the country.

In normal circumstances, a very bad performance for the government party plus low Prime Ministerial approval ratings might have resulted in the Theresa May having to resign. While many MPs and even more of her wider party want her to go, MPs are likely to bide their time until after the EU elections (which will also see the reduction of the number of Conservative MPs) to make another strike on Theresa May’s leadership. Having evaded numerous coup attempts, it’s unclear if this will be the straw to break the camel’s back.

Scotland

Last week, First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon announced that she will introduce legislation to lay out the plans for a second independence referendum by the end of the current Scottish Parliament (2021) if the UK leaves the EU.

While this does, to agree, set things to motion, she has given herself breathing room to pull back on the date if the UK has not left the EU by then.

The independence debate has been bubbling away in the background since the 2016 EU referendum vote that saw pro-EU Scotland vote overwhelmingly to stay in the EU at odds with most of the rest of the UK. This move increases the heat on an already fierce debate in Scotland and the wider UK.

Indeed today, on the anniversary of the Union of the Crowns of 1707, a fiery Prime Minister’s Questions saw many jibes at the SNP government north of the border from Theresa May.

Indeed, Nicola Sturgeon kicked things off with a rousing pro-EU speech at the SNP Spring party conference in Edinburgh, at which yours truly was talking to senior Scottish Government figures about the DMA’s exciting Value of Data work in Scotland as well as appearing on talkRADIO to discuss the issues of the day.