Is demographic targeting dead?

Demographic targeting is under attack.

Brand Quarterly declared it dead and Netflix said they found it next to useless. "Because, here's a shocker for you” said Todd Yellin from Netflix, “there are actually 19-year-old guys who watch 'Dance Moms', and there are 73-year-old women who are watching 'Breaking Bad' and 'Avengers'."

Some scepticism is justified, as sweeping statements about broad, demographic groups can be misleading. Take Millenials. How much links an 18 year old doing his ‘A’ levels and a 34 year old company director with two kids?

However, despite these flaws it’s remiss to write off demographics completely. We just need to limit our pronouncements to smaller groups. One such group, who should interest marketers, are ‘9 enders’, those whose age ends in nine.

The academic evidence

Adam Alter and Hal Hershfield, psychologists from New York University and UCLA respectively, have conducted analysis of the 42,063 respondents to the World Value Survey. This work has shown that when someone's age ends in a nine they are more likely to question the meaningfulness of their life.

This introspection occurs because we don't think of time progressing in an even manner. Certain landmarks, such as moving from one decade to another, assume disproportionate importance in our minds.

We surveyed 500 nationally representative adults and found that this phenomenon occurs in the UK too. '9-enders', as Alter terms those whose age ends in nine, were 12% more likely to claim to think issues through thoroughly.

Changes in behaviour not just attitude

Interestingly, for marketers, this introspection often begets action. Many 9-enders address their predicament by taking quite drastic steps. Having affairs for one thing. The psychologists analysed the ages of 8 million male users of a website, ashleymaddison.com, which specialises in arranging affairs for those in a relationship. (Its cheery slogan: "Life is short. Have an affair").

They found that men were 18% more likely to have an affair when their age ended in nine. If men are more likely to reflect on their lives it's therefore more likely that they realise something is amiss and take remedial action.

Unfortunately, the self-destructive behaviour doesn't end there. Data, from the US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, showed a small, but statistically significant, increase in the number of 9-enders committing suicide.

Not all the behaviour is negative though. 9-enders are just more likely to make big, decisive steps, good or bad, to change their lives. Data from the sports website athlinks showed that 9-enders were 48% more likely to enter marathons for the first time than other age groups.

The marketing implications

These results are of interest to marketers as targeting 9-enders is a good opportunity to reach people at moments of reappraisal. This is an important consideration as these moments are actually quite rare. Most decisions are habitual and therefore hard to influence.

Marketers responsible for a wide variety of products, whether that's diet aids, sports cars, luxury holidays or retirement savings, should take note. 9-enders could be a profitable addition to your target audience.