Brexit Cabinet resignations: what's going on?!

Like a house of cards and the popularity of overused political metaphors, the integrity of the government’s position appears to have collapsed. The Foreign Secretary handed in his resignation shortly after the Brexit Secretary’s resignation was accepted by the Prime Minister.

So! Here are the potential outcomes:

Possible Outcome 1: ‘A necessary thinning out’ (likelihood: 8/10)

• No leadership challenge
• Theresa May keeps Fox and Gove and now has a more obedient cabinet overall.
• TM might concede one or two token points of Chequers agreement but largely remains intact.
• TM makes call to fight off hard Brexiteers with the threat that bringing her down might put Corbyn in power.
• It’s also too late in Brexit negotiations to have a leadership challenge and leave time for any further negotiations after.

Result: Everyone holds tight a bit longer, at least until they know what deal with EU looks like.

Possible Outcome 2: ‘die another day’ (likelihood: 6/10)

• 1922 committee get the 48 Conservative MPs necessary to lodge confidence vote
• TM wins new mandate

Result: Plays out like possible outcome 1

Possible Outcome 3: ‘Coming back from the abyss’ (likelihood: 7/10)

• 1922 committee get the 48 Conservative MPs necessary to lodge confidence vote
• Fox and other ministers resign
• TM wins new mandate

Result: Plays out like possible outcome 1 without Fox (and potentially Gove etc)

Possible Outcome 4: ‘All gone to pot’ (Likelihood: 4/10)

• Fox and other ministers resign
• 1922 committee get the 48 Conservative MPs necessary to lodge confidence vote which TM loses
• Leadership race between hard and soft Brexiteer candidates. Hard Brexiteers probably rally behind Johnson or Fox.

Result: No time to negotiate, no deal becomes very likely

Sight tight, folks: It’s crunch time.